Chapter 38: If Cao Cao wants to dig a pit for us, we shall find success elsewhere!

"Before Gongyou was sent by you, my lord, to negotiate the return of Shu, Cao Cao was already conferring with his strategists on how to lure you into leading your troops across the river to annihilate our main force."

"This was the 'luring the snake out of its hole' scheme proposed by Jia Xu."

"However, while I was still present, they had not yet decided what bait to use to entice you into marching your troops across the river."

Xu Shu straightened up and turned his gaze toward Liu Bei:

"Later, after Gongyou arrived and Cao Cao agreed to the exchange, I withdrew to avoid suspicion. Then, Cao Cao ordered me to head north to Chaoyang to welcome my mother south."

"It was precisely because of this that I had the opportunity to glimpse the reality of the Cao army's grain depot in Chaoyang, which led me to the idea of proposing a surprise attack on Chaoyang to you, my lord."

"Looking back now, Cao Cao must have intentionally reduced the garrison at the Chaoyang grain depot beforehand, using the opportunity of my arrival to fetch my mother to let me see a manufactured illusion of weakness."

"He even calculated that once I returned to Xiangyang, I would surely suggest a surprise attack on Chaoyang to you!"

"If you had truly followed my advice, my lord, Cao Cao would have undoubtedly laid a heavy ambush at Chaoyang. We would have walked straight into a trap, risking the total destruction of our entire army!"

From Xiao He's brief remarks, Xu Shu had deduced the entirety of Cao Cao's scheme. By the time he finished, cold sweat was already beading on his forehead. Liu Bei and the others listened in horror, drawing sharp gasps of air.

A sudden realization dawned upon the group; their eyes, filled with newfound clarity, turned in unison toward Xiao He.

Liu Bei suppressed his agitation and asked hurriedly:

"Bowen, is what Yuanzhi says exactly what you meant?"

Xiao He swallowed hard. To be honest, he hadn't thought it through that deeply—or rather, he hadn't had the time to deliberate on it. All of what Xu Shu said was purely his own imaginative reconstruction. Yet, upon closer reflection, Xu Shu’s deduction was perfectly logical, linking seamlessly with his own previous attempt to "scare" Liu Bei into a perfect, closed loop.

"Yes, yes, exactly. What Yuanzhi says is precisely what I meant."

Xiao He had no reason to deny it and simply went with the flow, nodding in agreement.

Liu Bei gasped, sighing with lingering fear:

"Cao Cao’s cunning is truly unfathomable; I am far from his equal. It is fortunate that I have Bowen; otherwise, I would have been manipulated by Cao Cao again and repeated the mistakes of the past."

Xu Shu looked ashamed and bowed to Xiao He again:

"Thank you, Bowen, for waking me in time. Otherwise, I would have caused a great disaster and become a sinner against my lord."

"That you, my lord, have encountered such a brilliant talent as Bowen is truly your good fortune and the blessing of the Great Han."

***

The praise from Liu Bei and Xu Shu made Xiao He feel somewhat embarrassed, and he could only offer a polite, awkward smile.

"Yuanzhi, you take it too seriously. There is no talk of 'sinners' here."

"Cao Cao has a cloud of strategists under his command—Cheng Yu, Jia Xu, Liu Ye—none of them are easy to deal with. When a whole group of them conspires against you, let alone you, who wouldn't fall for it?"

Xiao He smiled, offering Xu Shu a way out.

The shame on Xu Shu’s face faded significantly, but he sighed again:

"It seems that the plan for a surprise attack on Chaoyang is indeed no longer viable."

"Since this scheme of Cao Cao's has failed, he will only continue to stand off against us in Xiangfan. Based on what I know of him, he is determined not to withdraw his troops until he has taken Jingzhou!"

At this, Xu Shu looked at Liu Bei:

"My lord, I wonder how long our grain supplies can last?"

Liu Bei cast a glance at Mi Zhu. Since the Xuzhou era, Mi Zhu had been in charge of military provisions; such matters were naturally for him to answer.

Mi Zhu calculated silently for a moment and replied:

"With the grain originally stored in Xiangyang, we could have supported our army for about ten months."

"However, after Liu Cong and Cai Mao fled to Jiangling, they cut off the grain trade to Xiangyang. Relying solely on the grain produced in Xiangyang and the surrounding counties is not enough to feed the populace."

"Therefore, you ordered some time ago that a portion of the government grain stores be released for the people of Xiangyang to purchase."

"By this account, our reserves should only be enough for a little over five months."

Five months!

Hearing this, Xu Shu’s brows knitted together, and a shadow fell over his face.

"Cao Cao is determined to take Jingzhou and will not retreat. Now that his scheme is exposed and he cannot quickly defeat you, he will certainly shift to a war of attrition."

"Cao Cao was able to hold out for half a year at the Battle of Guandu. Given his current foundation, supporting a campaign for a year or more should be effortless for him."

"I fear that if we enter a stalemate, our grain reserves will not be enough to outlast the Cao army."

Xu Shu’s words were like a warning bell, instantly tightening everyone’s nerves.

"Brother, Yuanzhi is right. If we engage in a war of attrition with Cao Cao, a single city will never prevail against an entire state."

"We must devise another brilliant strategy to quickly force Cao Cao to retreat; we absolutely cannot fight a long-term war."

Even as arrogant as Guan Yu was, he felt a measure of concern. A shadow of worry spread across Liu Bei’s face as he paced the hall, his brows furrowed deep.

***

The strategists and generals broke into a clamor of discussion, yet after a long while, no strategy for a quick victory emerged.

Xiao He also felt the wine lose its taste. He set down his cup and rubbed his forehead with his fingertips.

"If this drags on until the grain runs out and the army’s morale collapses without a fight, it will all be over. Wouldn't all the previous efforts be in vain?"

"Hmm, in the end, we really must find a way to make Cao Cao retreat quickly."

"Looking at it this way, we still need to use Xu Shu’s strategy. But according to his calculations, Cao Cao has already dug a pit at Chaoyang, and we cannot just foolishly jump into it..."

Xiao He’s thoughts raced, his mind whirring, as his gaze swept across the map.

Suddenly, a flash of inspiration struck.

"My lord, we must still use Yuanzhi’s plan: a surprise attack on Cao Cao’s grain depot to burn his supplies to the ground!"

Xiao He’s sudden, decisive words cut through the discussion. Liu Bei turned abruptly, and Xu Shu looked up sharply.

The surprised and confused gazes of everyone gathered on Xiao He.

"Bowen, didn't you conclude that Cao Cao has laid an inescapable trap at Chaoyang? If we still launch a surprise attack on Chaoyang, wouldn't we be walking right into his trap?"

Guan Yu’s phoenix eyes flickered with confusion as he voiced the doubt that everyone shared.

Xiao He leaped up and walked to the map with a knowing smile.

"General Guan, you misunderstand. The surprise attack on the Cao army’s grain depot I speak of is not at Chaoyang, but here!"

Xiao He stood before the map and pointed a finger at it.

"Deng County?"

The group was startled, speaking the name in unison.

"Let’s not forget, Deng County also holds forty percent of Cao Cao’s grain. If we burn the grain at Deng County, it will also be a heavy blow to the Cao army."

"My thinking is this: since Cao Cao has dug a pit for us at Chaoyang, he will inevitably deploy heavy troops there for an ambush."

"As a result, his vigilance and defense regarding Deng County will surely be relaxed."

Xiao He turned back to Liu Bei and sneered:

"In that case, we will strike where he least expects it. We will not raid his Chaoyang depot, but instead, we will burn his grain depot at Deng County to the ground!"

The shadow on Liu Bei’s face suddenly dispersed, and a look of delight surged into his eyes.